Will FC Dallas make the playoffs?
Tonight, against St Louis, FC Dallas begins their uphill climb to postseason contention.
Tonight, in St Louis, FC Dallas takes the field to start their seven game run to close out the season at 7:30 PM CST.
This could be a revenge game for St Louis who absolutely got crushed by FC Dallas at home back in July.
The two teams are in different places, as St Louis is struggling with a very tough year, staff turnover, roster changes, and more. FC Dallas, however, are dealing with changes of their own but at least have a shout to make things interesting as the postseason draws near. And that is the question I take into this match - can FCD keep building on their recent run of form to at least giving them a chance on the final weekend of the season to claw their way into that final playoff spot?
I asked a couple of FC Dallas nerds, anonymously, about the percentage chance they would put on the Burn making the playoffs.
One said, honestly and bluntly: 5%.
The other offered a more optimistic assessment: 20%. But, he added, a loss against St Louis drops it to 5%.
That’s fair. And that should temper the undying optimism of the Frisco fan base.1 Still, there is a chance, to quote Lloyd Christmas.
Here are my pros/cons to postseason action for Dallas.
Pros: FC Dallas Have Been Playing Better
With the departure of Lucho Acosta, the team has bought in to a new team culture that has helped with on-field performances. FC Dallas closed out an undefeated August with a home win, away draw, and home draw against solid squads. In that small sample size, they averaged 1.66 points per game, much better than the overall season average of 1.11. Carry that out to the remaining seven games, they would gain 11-12 points over the remaining matches.
Does that guarantee postseason action? No. But it does put them into the conversation as they sit 5 points outside the final stop right now. It helps too that many of the teams they face are also above them and fighting to solidify their playoff tickets. Points and positioning can be gained.
Cons: Home field advantage is not such an advantage for FC Dallas.
With the remaining schedule ahead, three of Dallas’ matches are at home. You think they could win all three of those and grab one win on the road. That should bode well, but FC Dallas has been solid on the road and awful at home. Can we bank on those wins at all? Even with a new attitude team?
I’m hesitant, even with the improved play as of late.
Pros: Christian Cappis has been a good signing.
When the rumors swirled that Cappis was moving back home to Frisco, the first reaction was that the American international was going to be a good budget signing, a guy Quill liked a lot, who could give the team some depth at a couple of positions. But I was wrong. Cappis has been an excellent signing that has fit the work rate Quill wants, along with flexibility the team has needed. His absence (gassed as he was) was clearly felt in the second half against LAFC.
He’s going to get better and really help FC Dallas solidify a midfield that needs some stability.
Cons: The formation is still kind of a mess.
Yes, things have improved, but I don’t know that any fan is feeling overwhelming confidence about the tactical setup in Frisco at the moment. We have some great things going for us - a mix of young, up and coming players, an All-Star striker, good goal keeper cores, and some difference makers off the bench. But Quill’s problem still seems to be how to get all the best pieces on the field at the same time in a way that is coherent and fluid.
Bernard Kamungo, for example, is the left wing back we didn’t know we had. He’s been shaky but also good at times. Is this Quill trying to get more out of him? Or get the guy in a position to help the team? Or just trying to get the best XI out there by any means necessary?
Another challenge - Julio Anderson was stellar before his injury. How can you pair him with Musa to the most effect? Is he going to be a bench option with Logan Farrington playing well? Do you try him more at wing back?
What is the starting core of midfielders next to Cappis? Kaick has been good in his first full pro season as a youngster, but he’s still young. He is going to make mistakes. Ramiro is a nice veteran, but his speed isn’t quite there at times. Is Lletget going to play a sizeable role as a starter or bench player? Tsiki is gone, so does that open the door for someone else who can come in and settle the midfield late in games or provide a spark?
Pros: Eric Quill’s vision of a team of DAWGS is ready to bear fruit.
FC Dallas can be the team no one wants to play with a couple of hot strikers and a gritty mentality that will grind out results. This team has nothing to lose by going out, running around, and causing havoc. Musa has been particularly good at that.
Dallas are playing with joy. That’s a good thing when so many teams are going to feel the pressure. I like those odds.
Cons: We are FC Dallas fans.
When have the soccer gods ever rewarded us without a head coach named Oscar Pareja? Okay, yeah. Let’s squash that optimism until the team proves otherwise.
Until then, may the game unfold as it may.
This is a joke.