Playoff Scenarios: What FC Dallas and North Texas Need This Weekend
The playoffs are almost here for MLS Next Pro and Major League Soccer. What do FC Dallas and North Texas SC need from this weekend?
Here’s the big picture. Maybe this is all this article needs to say as the regular season draws to a close in both Major League Soccer and MLS Next Pro:
FC Dallas and North Texas SC need to win this weekend if they want to extend their 2025 campaign.
But there is a bit more to consider, starting with the development side who have one more shot this weekend to stake their claim.
What North Texas Needs: Win or Draw and PK Shootout
The reigning champions in MLS Next Pro have a fairly simple scenario as they travel to the west coast to take on Los Angeles FC 2 on the campus of University of Southern California. NTSC needs more than one point. If they get 3 points, regardless of any other result, they will punch their ticket into the playoff mixer. If they can draw and get a penalty kick shootout win, they also will have done enough to secure their spot.
Where they end up in the final standings is up for debate with either scenario. With a win and other results (though unlikely to happen), they could end up as high as 5th place in the standings. That’s pretty wild but unlikely though. Here’s why—
The Vancouver Whitecaps 2 have two matches left, one tonight and another this weekend. Sure, if they lose both, they could sit below North Texas. I imagine they will get at least one win from the two matches though.
Minnesota United FC 2 host Sporting Kansas City 2, not a good team, but if they lose, NTSC could also leap frog them. Not sure I see that as a possibility though. (And makes you really angry that NTSC could not get a result against them last month.)
Ventura County FC host Colorado Rapids 2. A win would keep them above North Texas. Rapids will want to secure their positioning though in a tight field. Tough, tough match.
Of course, chaos can happen on a final weekend, as these young teams and their players all take this as one last chance ahead of a long off season to impress scouts and their clubs for future opportunities.
North Texas SC can still get in with a draw or a loss if Austin FC 2 and Houston Dynamo 2 lose. Both are playing away, so it’s not an impossible situation. But if either get a win and NTSC can’t get more than 1 point, it’s done.
One more scenario - if Austin FC 2 gets a draw and a PK shootout win and North Texas doesn’t get at least a point, that would also shut the door. Basically, any tie scenario does not work in NTSC’s favor due to their terrible goal differential (-12).
That’s a lot to process, so easiest scenario is this - win.
Afterburn will be there to cover the match on Sunday.
What FC Dallas Needs: Win
Here’s the thing. FC Dallas won’t have their playoff situation completely shut on them this weekend even if they lose at home against the visiting Los Angeles Galaxy, but a home win will make the next two weekends a lot easier to manage. Jose on the pod thinks a win and a draw over these final three games will be enough, but six points from the final three matches would have me a lot more comfortable with San Jose, Real Salt Lake, and Houston still in the mix for one of the final two playoff spots.
Here’s the good news - the Galaxy, who are out of the playoff picture, have a midweek game against Toluca, their chance to salvage something from the brutal season with a Campeones Cup win. They will put much more emphasis on that game and likely be emotionally and physically exhausted as they travel to Frisco on Saturday for an early afternoon match.
The stars are aligned, basically, for a big win at home.
Elsewhere, some other results could provide clarity—
Houston hosts San Diego, and after San Diego’s most recent loss, I bet this is a turnaround performance. The newcomers could officially end the Dynamo’s slim playoff hopes, which would be a beautiful thing. Houston absolutely need a win, as a draw may keep them in things but not quite be enough.
Real Salt Lake and Colorado play in a massive match. It’s crazy that we might want to root for RSL getting a win over Colorado to muddy things up, but if the Rapids can manage a draw, that might help Dallas. A loss for RSL will all but end their playoff chances unless San Jose and FCD lose.
San Jose are the other team in the mix with that big win against San Diego last weekend. They travel up to Vancouver, and really, this has got to be a win for a Vancouver side that is looking a bit depleted. Anything can happen, but please Whitecaps, win. Otherwise, the bottom end of the standings gets very, very crowded.
Tie breaker scenarios get weird. I always assume goal differential is the key one, but it looks like I am wrong. But no need to worry about that when you can win and put daylight between you and your rivals.
So, there it is - win, and everything looks a lot clearer after this weekend.